By Frank Tietie
A casual interpretation of the Freemasons’ motto, _Ordo ab Chao_ (Order from Chaos), suggests a noble ambition: to create order where disorder exists. Science itself appears to validate this notion through the second law of thermodynamics, which explains how systems naturally move from order to disorder unless energy is deliberately applied to reorganise them. Yet, politics and power rarely follow such innocence, because more often than not, disorder is intentionally created to impose a new order.
It is against this backdrop that the recent United States airstrikes in Nigeria, purportedly aimed at protecting Nigerian Christians from a perceived Islamic genocide, must be examined. These strikes are not merely tactical responses to insecurity; they represent a strategic challenge to Nigeria’s present order. That order, long sustained by corruption, bad governance, and the cynical exploitation of religion, has allowed banditry, kidnapping, insurgency, and even the creeping ambition of foreign jihadist elements seeking their own Islamic caliphate to fester.
This tactic is not new. The United States has, in the past, anticipated the possible fragmentation of Nigeria by famously projecting its breakup around 2015. What appears different now is a more direct, Trumpian approach. Under the pretext of humanitarian protection, unilateral strikes, however morally arguable, risk inflaming religious and ethnic tensions in Nigeria. The predictable outcome of such tensions is the disintegration of Nigeria’s current configuration, paving the way for a new order in which various groups may finally secure what they have long sought. That is what the Americans intend without saying so.
The messaging from Washington has been unmistakable. The demonstration of its capacity to strike targets deep in Northern Nigeria, particularly in Sokoto State, the historic seat of the Caliphate, is symbolic as much as it is strategic. It signals intent, reach, and a willingness to redraw the lines of power and redefine Nigeria.
Nigeria’s government officials, including the political elites of the North, have read these signs quite well. Their response has been cautious and, in many respects, self-preservationist. I have witnessed some of these measures firsthand in recent months. They are attempts to stave off a disorder that appears deliberately orchestrated from outside.
In a world where international order is dictated by the interplay of military might, collaboration or consent often becomes secondary. So, whether or not Nigeria publicly claims a partnership with Washington, a decision by Donald Trump to act would likely have proceeded regardless.
This places Nigeria in an unenviable position. The government is struggling to manage the fallout of what seems inevitable, complicated further by the temperament and unpredictability associated with President Trump. Nigeria’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Yusuf Tuggar, an exceptionally brilliant diplomat, finds himself in the most challenging moment of his career as he engages reputable international media while insisting that Nigeria sanctioned the strikes. Simultaneously, there appear to be efforts to limit the circulation of video and photographic evidence showing the true extent of damage inflicted on ISIS-linked elements, perhaps to avoid generating sympathy that could provoke retaliatory sentiments in Northern Nigeria
There is no escaping a hard truth. Successive Nigerian governments, particularly those of Muhammadu Buhari and now Bola Tinubu, have been sluggish in addressing the country’s growing insecurity. Vast rural spaces remain ungoverned and unprotected. Nigeria’s failure to decisively secure itself has created the vacuum into which foreign powers now step.
If disorder is coming, Nigeria must not be a passive victim of it. Rather than allowing external actors to impose chaos and dictate outcomes, Nigeria must deliberately trigger and manage a reordering of its own system. This requires an immediate, responsible, and revolutionary overhaul of our security architecture to assign real responsibility at every level of governance, including local, regional, and national levels.
Order will not emerge from chaos by accident. If Nigeria is to survive as a coherent state, it must seize control of the process of change. Otherwise, others will do it for us, and it will not be in our interest.
Frank Tietie
A member of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA) and Foreign Policy School (FPS) is a Nigerian Lawyer and the Executive Director of Citizens Advocacy for Social and Economic Rights(CASER), writes from Abuja, Nigeria
