Strategic Thinking for Progressive Governance in the 21st Century

By Clem Ikanade Agba

BEING THE TEXT OF A PAPER DELIVERED BY PRINCE CLEM IKANADE AGBA, CON, IMMEDIATE PAST MINISTER OF STATE FOR BUDGET AND NATIONAL PLANNING AT THE 22ND MEETING OF THE NATIONAL COUNCIL ON DEVELOPMENT PLANNING (NCDP) AT CENTRE FOR BLACK CULTURE, BEHIND
SECRETARIAT, OSHOGBO, OSUN STATE
ON SEPTEMBER 14, 2023.

I am delighted to be with you on this very important occasion of the 22ND Joint Planning Board (JPB) and National Council on Development Planning (NCDP) meeting taking place in this beautiful city of Oshogbo, the capital of Osun State Nigeria. Let me first, express my profound appreciation to the Honourable Commissioners/Executive Secretaries, Permanent Secretaries responsible for Budget and Economic Planning across states of the Federation, other Senior Officials from the Federal and States Ministries, as well as agencies responsible for Budget and Economic matters, Representatives of the Organized Private Sector, Development Partners and Civil Society Organizations from across the

36 states for your steadfastness and dedication in sustaining this Forum and keeping the light aglow even with increasing challenges facing the Nigerian economy. In particular, the forum has remained consistent even at a time when the domestic and world economies are seriously challenged.

2. Ladies and Gentlemen, it is my honor to stand before you today to discuss a topic that is of utmost importance in our ever-changing world – Strategic Thinking for progressive Governance in the 21st Century. Before I proceed, permit me to state how thrilled I am by the central theme of this event, which is: “Imperative for Restoring Nigeria on the Path of Sustainable Economic Growth and Development”. The Theme is apt and could not have come at a better time than now when we are faced with transitions and implementing both the Nigeria Agenda 2050 and the National Development Plan (NDP), 2021-2025.
3. My topic for today’s discussion is “Strategic Thinking for Progressive Governance in the 21st Century” This aligns with the broader theme of Restoring Nigeria on the Path of Sustainable Economic Growth and Development. Progressive Governance in the 21st Century is about how to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and development to improve standards of living of citizens, while maintaining financial stability through sound economic plans. Thus, progressivism is about how best to strengthen democratic institutions, stimulate higher growth, and improve social justice.
4. This involves strategic thinking, which is the process of envisioning a desired future state and determining the actions necessary to achieve it. Strategic thinking requires leaders to analyse current trends, anticipate potential obstacles, and develop effective strategies to guide their societies towards progress and prosperity. It enables us to foster collaboration and partnerships across nations, to leverage our collective wisdom and resources, and to create a sustainable future for generations to come. In the 21st century, where the world is increasingly interconnected and complex, the significance of strategic thinking has never been greater.
5. Strategic thinking is also vital for inclusive (progressive) governance. In a world where diversity is celebrated and societies are becoming more multicultural, it is essential for leaders to adopt an inclusive approach that values and embraces different perspectives. Progressive governance calls for a wide range of stakeholders in the decision- making process to ensure that our policies and strategies reflect the needs and aspirations of all members of society. It enables us to bridge divides, build consensus, and promote social cohesion, ensuring that no one is left behind in the pursuit of progress
6. The world is witnessing an era of unprecedented innovation, where artificial intelligence, robotics, and automation are reshaping industries and societies. By embracing strategic thinking, we can leverage these advancements to unlock new economic opportunities, enhance productivity, and improve quality of life. Progressive governance impels us to invest in education, research, and infrastructure to ensure that our societies are prepared for the jobs of the future and the attendant challenges. Strategic thinking involves beginning with the end in mind through three phases that identify and clarify: 1) where we are now; 2) where we want to be; and 3) how we will get there.
7. There is good news: Nigeria has already done a lot of the strategic thinking on where we want to be in 30 years and how to get there by developing Nigeria Agenda 2050. The Nigeria Agenda 2050 is a perspective plan designed to transform the country into an “Upper- Middle Income Country”, with a significant improvement in per capita income. The plan aims to fully engage all resources, reduce poverty, achieve social and economic stability. It also targets developing a mechanism for achieving sustainable environment consistent with global concerns about climate change. The plan therefore presents the road map for accelerated, sustained and broad-based growth and provides broad frameworks for reducing unemployment, poverty, inequality, and human deprivation.
8. The path to that goal will pass through six Medium Term National Development Plans NDP): NDP (2021-2025) (already developed and published) and subsequent national development plans covering (2026-2030), (2031-2035), (2036-2040), (2041-2045), and (2046-2050). The first of the medium-term plan, named NDP 2021-2025, is to make Nigeria a country that has unlocked its potential in all sectors of the economy for a sustainable, holistic, and inclusive development. Specifically, the Plan aims to generate 21 million full-time jobs and lift 35 million people out of poverty by 2025: thus, setting the stage for achieving the government’s commitment of lifting 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years.
9. Having set the future agenda through the above plans, the next step is to ensure effective implementation, monitoring and evaluation and achieving the planned result. To achieve these, we need to:
10. Address binding domestic growth constraints through creating the needed enabling environment for sustainable economic growth and development to allow the private sector to drive the economy. The strategy to create the needed enabling environment for sustainable economic growth and development is contained in Volume III which is the legal and legislatives imperatives. This volume includes 18 laws that need to be passed or amended and 10 policies for effective implementation of the NDP, 2021-2025.
11. Urgently resubmit and ensure the passage of “The Development Planning and Project Continuity Bill” which has been in National Assembly undergoing legislative process for enactment. This will improve plan implementation majorly affected by political and policy changes.
12. Strengthen the link between the Plan and Annual Budget and improve inter-sectoral collaboration.
13. Ensure coordinated and harmonised efforts with states and create the enabling environment for increased private sector investment.
14. Ensure diligent implementation of the plan especially Volumes I, II & III. Volume I contains the policies with targets and the required investment; Volume II has the costed priority programmes and projects, while Volume III is the legal and legislatives imperatives. For effective implementation of the plan, there is need to do following:

• The National M&E Policy already approved by FEC should be implemented.
  ● Increase the monitoring and evaluation process to ensure that we are not only getting value for money but that we are also strategic in resource allocation.
  ● Ensure that the Plan Implementation Unit already set up by the Ministry is adequately resourced, running and efficient. This also needs to be replicated at the Sub-national level
  ● You inspect what you expect. To achieve the best result, you must inspect.
  ● Ensure that Eye Mark App of the Ministry and the iMonitor Platform of the Budget office is up and running. Feedbacks collated from citizens should be used to monitor and enhance project delivery. The use of feedback will elicit citizen and Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) participation in tracking progress and performance of Government’s interventions.
  ● For a strong M&E framework, we must:
  ● Strengthen National M&E
  ● Monitor the Plan’s established-metrics and performance indicators.
  ● Bridge the M&E knowledge gap and professionalize M&E systems in the country.
  ● Digitize Performance Management System Coordination in MDAs across the country.

11. There should be effective communication of the plan; for instance, strong publicity of both the Nigeria Agenda 2050 and the National Development Plan (NDP),2021-2025. Effective communication is required to ensure Nigerian citizens and stakeholders such as Civil Society Organizations are aware of their roles, responsibilities, risks, benefits, opportunities, and stake at every stage of the plan implementation process.
12. Furthermore, communication helps in the management of stakeholder expectations, serves as a feedback channel and helps in conflict prevention, management and resolution. More importantly, effective communication will enable citizens and stakeholders such as Civil Society Organizations and foreign investors know the policies and strategies of government and key areas for investment.
13. There is need for a mid-term review of the performance of NDP 2021-
    2025. This will focus on the degree to which planned results are on target, and the areas that may require improvement. Mid-term review should be carried out before the development of NDP 2026-2030. The report should guide the development of the next plan. In fact, the mid- term review should start NOW.
14. Let me also commend the current administration for setting up a committee to reform Nigeria’s tax system, for enhanced collection and with a target of at least 18% tax-to-GDP ratio within the next 3 years without stifling investment or economic growth. This is part of a push by government to curb its reliance on borrowing to finance public spending. This target is seemingly aggressive, but all efforts should be made to achieve it. According to the World Bank, tax revenues above 15 per cent of a country’s GDP are a key ingredient for economic growth and, ultimately, poverty reduction. Nigeria’s Revenue-to-GDP ratio of 10.86% is low when compared to 21 per cent in Angola, 28 per cent in Botswana, 13 per cent in Ghana, 16 per cent in Kenya, 19% in Senegal, and 28% in South Africa.
15. Another fiscal issue to tackle is that we need to raise the capital expenditure to a minimum of 30 per cent of the total expenditure as outlined in the NDP 2021-2025. The much we could do was 23.56 per cent in 2019 and 20.74 per cent in 2021. The increase in capital spending can create infrastructure capacity for future growth.
16. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, I am confident that the outcome of this 22ND Joint Planning Board (JPB) and National Council on Development Planning (NCDP) meeting will help government in designing policies that will strengthen democratic institutions, stimulate higher growth, and improve social justice. Conventional approaches cannot solve the daunting but surmountable problems we face. Strategic thinking is also vital for inclusive governance. In a world where diversity is celebrated and societies are becoming more multicultural, it is essential for our leaders to adopt an inclusive approach that values and embraces different perspectives. The need of the hour is to think out of the box, and work towards sustainable growth and development. The outcome of this meeting should also help the government to make informed decisions towards realising its target in the NDP 2021-2025 and Nigeria Agenda 2050.
17. On this note, let me use this opportunity to appreciate the Osun State government for the excellent facilities made available for this very important conference. I am also grateful to the organising Committee for inviting me to deliver this address and working to deliver an eventful meeting.
18. While wishing you very successful deliberations, I thank you all for your kind attention.
19. God bless you, and God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.