By Kio Amachree
Let us stop pretending that all is well.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu has a serious problem in Washington, and it is getting worse.
First came the U.S. court orders. In April 2025, a federal judge ordered the FBI and DEA to release records tied to Tinubu. Then in February 2026, Judge Beryl Howell lost patience with the delays, rebuked the agencies, demanded sworn explanations, imposed a release timetable, and ordered continuing status reports. That is not a trivial development. That is a sign that this matter is alive, active, and serious. 
Then came the political humiliation.
Nigeria was redesignated by the United States as a Country of Particular Concern in late October 2025 over religious-freedom abuses, a major diplomatic blow to any government that wants to be seen as credible, stable, and in control. By January 22, 2026, Abuja and Washington had to set up a special joint working group just to address the damage from that designation. That is not the posture of a respected partner. That is the posture of a government under pressure. 
Then came the desperate public-relations scramble.
Nigeria hired U.S. lobbyists in a $9 million effort to “communicate its position” to Washington as criticism mounted over insecurity and the treatment of Christians. At the same time, First Lady Remi Tinubu went to Washington for the National Prayer Breakfast, appeared on conservative U.S. media, and met lawmakers as part of the same broader influence campaign. Nine million dollars spent, the First Lady dispatched, the full charm offensive activated, and yet the core problem remains. Tinubu still looks like a leader trying to repair trust he does not have. 
And now the security optics are even more damaging.
Reuters reported on March 21, 2026 that the United States has multiple MQ-9 drones operating in Nigeria alongside about 200 U.S. troops providing intelligence and training support. Whether Abuja likes it or not, that is the image of a country viewed in Washington not as a normal democratic success story, but as a worsening security problem. 
Put all of this together and the picture is ugly.
A president with unresolved U.S. records hanging over him.
A country branded by Washington as a Country of Particular Concern.
A $9 million lobbying campaign that reeks of desperation.
A First Lady sent to plead Nigeria’s case in America.
U.S. troops and drones on Nigerian soil because insecurity is spiraling.
This is not strength. This is weakness dressed up as diplomacy.
Tinubu’s supporters may still choose fantasy over facts. They may tell themselves that a state visit to Britain, a few smiling photographs, and establishment handshakes in Europe will solve the problem. They will not. London cannot erase a U.S. federal court order. Paris cannot bury FBI and DEA files. No friendly foreign capital can wash away the stain of a government that has had to spend millions begging Washington to change its mind while America simultaneously brands Nigeria a serious violator and deepens its own military footprint inside the country. 
This is why I believe Tinubu’s political danger is not coming from the usual noise in Abuja. It is coming from the collision between old records, present insecurity, and foreign distrust.
Once the remaining documents come out, Nigerians may discover that the problem was never just bad governance.
It was that the man at the top had become a liability to the very foreign powers whose approval he desperately needed.
And when that truth lands fully, many of his supporters will be shattered.
Because the real story may turn out not to be that Tinubu was protected.
It may be that he was useful, until he became too expensive to protect.
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