The European Union (EU) has reportedly ruled out deploying a full-scale election observation mission for Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, citing the country’s worsening security situation and what it described as the hostile treatment of its observers and officials following the 2023 elections.
The decision, if confirmed, would mark a major shift in the EU’s longstanding engagement with Nigeria’s electoral process, having deployed comprehensive observation missions to the country’s general elections since 2003.
The bloc reportedly communicated its position in response to an invitation from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to observe the 2027 elections.
According to correspondence cited in the report, the EU identified two key reasons for its decision: deteriorating security across Nigeria and the alleged hostile treatment of its personnel following the publication of its final report on the 2023 elections.
Rather than deploy observers across the country as it did in previous election cycles, the EU is expected to maintain only a small team in Abuja to monitor developments and report to its headquarters in Brussels.
Sources familiar with the correspondence reportedly put the number of officials at about three.
The proposed arrangement would exclude the deployment of long-term observers to the states, short-term observers to polling units on election day and a chief observer, who traditionally leads the bloc’s election observation missions.
The EU has observed Nigeria’s general elections since 2003, following invitations from INEC. Its previous missions covered the 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023 elections.
The 2023 mission was led by Irish member of the European Parliament, Barry Andrews, who described it as the EU’s seventh election observation mission to Nigeria since the return to democratic rule in 1999.
For the 2023 elections, the EU deployed an 11-member core team to Abuja on January 11, about six weeks before the presidential election. It subsequently deployed 40 long-term observers across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Short-term observers later joined the mission, taking the number of accredited observers to 110 from 25 EU member states, alongside observers from Norway, Switzerland and Canada.
A delegation from the European Parliament also participated in the observation of the Presidential and National Assembly elections. The mission remained in Nigeria until April 11, weeks after the February 25 presidential and March 18 governorship elections.
The EU released its final report in Abuja in June 2023, making 25 recommendations across six priority areas.
The report identified what the bloc described as persistent systemic weaknesses in Nigeria’s electoral process, arguing that deficiencies in electoral legislation and administration had undermined the conduct of credible and inclusive elections and weakened public confidence in INEC.
The report subsequently sparked controversy, with protests held at the EU delegation’s office in Abuja. Demonstrators accused the bloc of interfering in Nigeria’s internal affairs and demanded the withdrawal of the report.
Opposition figures and civil society groups subsequently alleged that some supporters of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) sponsored the protests. The allegation was denied.
The reported scaling down of the EU’s 2027 electoral observation effort comes against the backdrop of continuing insecurity in parts of the North-West, North-East, Middle Belt and South-East.
Violence and attacks on electoral infrastructure affected the 2023 elections in some parts of the country, while insecurity continues to pose challenges to the movement of election observers, particularly to rural and remote polling locations.
International election observation missions typically require personnel to travel extensively across polling areas, sometimes in locations where security support is limited. The security situation therefore presents significant logistical and operational challenges to large-scale deployments.
The EU’s reported decision could consequently reduce the level of international scrutiny surrounding the 2027 elections.
While organisations such as the National Democratic Institute, International Republican Institute, Commonwealth and African Union have observed Nigerian elections in the past, stakeholders say none has matched the scale and duration of the EU’s previous missions.
The development also comes against the backdrop of the EU’s wider support for Nigeria’s democratic institutions.
In 2022, the bloc committed €39 million to the second phase of its Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria programme, covering the 2022–2027 electoral cycle. A further €13 million was committed specifically for technical support to INEC ahead of the 2023 elections.
The correspondence on the 2027 observation mission does not indicate whether the reported decision will affect those financial and technical support arrangements.
The development is nevertheless likely to generate further debate over the credibility and transparency of the 2027 elections, particularly amid concerns about voter confidence and declining participation.
Voter turnout in the 2023 presidential election was about 27 per cent, the lowest recorded since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999.
Electoral stakeholders have maintained that credible international observation can provide an additional layer of independent scrutiny and contribute to public confidence in the electoral process.
INEC is already making preparations for the 2027 elections, including continuous voter registration and a review of polling unit distribution.
However, the electoral commission has not publicly confirmed the reported EU decision.
INEC Chief Press Secretary to the Chairman, Oketola Oriye, declined to comment when contacted by Daily Sun, saying the information available to him was at variance with the claims.
Similarly, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kemiebi Ebiemfa, declined to comment. Messages sent to her phone were delivered but unanswered, while the line was later unavailable as of the time of filing the report. ( Source: Daily Sun)
